9:24pm, 15th October, 2016


2 mins

An opinion poll was conducted by India Today group in collaboration with Axis to understand the political situation in Uttar Pradesh. The poll was conducted across all 403 constituencies, which included around 22000 people.

The BJP which tops the poll is expected to win 170-182 seats in UP assembly election,to be held next year. While BSP seems to win 115-124 seats and incumbent Samajwadi Party is expected to win 94-103 seats. The Indian National Congress which ruled UP 27 years back will barely make it to double digits by winning 8-12 seats. According to the opinion poll, Uttar Pradesh will surely have a hung assembly as for clear majority one needs to win 202 seats.


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However, 31 percent of the respondent wanted BSP supremo Mayawati as next CM , while 27 percent wanted Akhilesh to be back as Chief Minister. Congress which has projected Sheela Dixit as CM candidate, received huge disappointment as only 1 percent voted for her and 2 percent for Priyanka Vadra , who is said to have great influence in UP. 18 percent of the respondent wanted Home Minister, Rajnath Singh who has been former CM of the state. Yogi Adityanath, who is a BJP MP from Gorakhpur received 14 percent vote. Surprisingly, SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav was the choice of only 1 percent of the respondent. His figure has particularly some effects due to the recent family controversy.

The SP government in Uttar Pradesh faces a high level of anti- incumbency as 59 percent of the respondents expressed dissatisfaction with SP administration which particularly included law and order. Only one-third of the respondent were satisfied with the Samajwadi government.


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On the other hand, 54 percent of the respondent denied the notion of Congress Mukt Bharat. This was initiated by Amit Shah when he seated as BJP’s National President. It was strongly taken forward by the party workers and supporters.

The huge victory of BJP in 2014 will dominate in assembly election as the party is taking forth the same agenda of development. BJP has a great backing of upper caste and OBC votes. Ram Mandir as an agenda of BJP surprisingly received 0 percent vote and 88 percent voters wanted it to focus on development. Cow protection was the priority for only 1 percent voters. BJP, which has won 71 out of 80 parliamentary seats in 2014 is ahead in the opinion poll. BSP was runner up in 18 of the 80 seats but could not manage to win any which has its own share of Dalit and Muslim votes. 71 percent of Dalit respondents and 21 percent of Muslims indicated that they would be voting for BSP. SP has managed to secure 5 seats but this time, it has a strong hold on its core 67 percent Yadav and 58 percent Muslim voters.

Earlier the opinion poll conducted by C- Voter stated that there would be a neck to neck fight between BJP and SP. Perhaps, due to recent controversies in BSP and SP and central government’s report card of two and a half years has led to the change in the opinion poll.

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